Treasury yields, oil and the Fed dominate today, with markets facing a 10-year Treasury auction and FOMC minutes this afternoon.
7:00 AM ET — 🏠 MBA Mortgage Applications 10:30 AM ET — 🛢️ EIA Petroleum Inventories 11:00 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Treasury Buyback Announcement 11:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 4-Month Treasury Bill Auction 🔥 1:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 10-Year Treasury Note Auction 🔥 2:00 PM ET — 🏦 FOMC Meeting Minutes 3:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 Consumer Credit After Close — 👖 Levi Strauss Earnings After Close — 🤖 Applied Digital Earnings All Day — 🛢️ Oil / Middle East Headlines Econoday
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🔥**** FOMC MINUTES — KEY EVEN****T
The Fed releases minutes from its September meeting at 2:00 PM ET, when policymakers unanimously raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%.
Markets will look for clues on how much support exists for further tightening. Expectations for an October hike have dropped substantially, but another hike later this year remains in play.
Watch the 2Y yield, dollar and Fed-rate pricing. Reuters
🇺�� 10-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION
The 10-year auction at 1:00 PM ET could be especially important after the renewed Treasury selloff.
The 10Y is around 5.3% and the 30Y around 5.7%, with long-end yields near their highest levels since 2002. Reuters
Strong demand → yields ↓ → equities supported Weak demand → yields ↑ → pressure on stocks
🛢️**** EIA OIL INVENTORIE****S
The EIA releases weekly petroleum inventories at 10:30 AM ET.
With Brent above $100, inventory surprises could have a larger-than-usual market impact as traders focus on energy-driven inflation. AP News
Oil ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → Fed hike risk ↑ → yields ↑
🏦**** FE****D
There are no major scheduled Fed policymaker speeches today on the Fed's official calendar.
The primary Fed catalyst is therefore the 2:00 PM ET FOMC minutes. Réserve fédérale
💳**** CONSUMER CREDI****T
August Consumer Credit arrives at 3:00 PM ET.
Normally a secondary release, but it provides another look at household borrowing as elevated interest rates tighten financial conditions. Réserve fédérale
📊**** EARNING****S
Levi Strauss ( $LEVI) and Applied Digital ( $APLD) report after the close.
APLD may receive extra attention given the market's continued focus on AI/data-center infrastructure. MarketWatch
🎯**** MAIN FOCUS****: EIA Oil → 10Y Treasury Auction → FOMC Minutes → Treasury Yields → Fed-rate pricing
